Why I Am Not Optimistic About ChangXin

"Personal Opinion"

The nature of China's capital market is not to make money for investors—at least not for retail investors.

All companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are tools for core inner circles to siphon wealth, not legitimate financial avenues for regular people to invest their money.

ChangXin arrives at the Shanghai Stock Exchange boasting the title of China's largest memory chip enterprise, looking promising on the surface. But anyone clear-headed knows that retail investors will not make a dime.

Setting aside the rumors that Chinese brokerages colluded on day one of the listing to ban sell orders above 40 RMB, consider ChangXin itself.

The actual technical capability of Chinese enterprises is at least 20% below what they market. That is, any publicly claimed specification needs to be discounted by at least 20%.

Looking at its corporate structure, the entity in actual control is the Chinese government.

An entity that neither earns money for itself nor bears liability for losses cannot achieve any true, meaningful breakthroughs. At best, one manager goes to prison, and the next one takes over to continue the corruption.

ChangXin's ultimate fate will be no different from all other Chinese state-owned enterprises. There is zero doubt about this.

Just as the Liang Wenfeng audio leak exposed—where a model's promoted performance differed from its actual capability by more than tenfold—this is the consistent operational style across all Chinese companies.

I don't know memory chips, but I know China.