Why a US-Iran Rapprochement Is Impossible

A US-Iran peace deal is perpetually stalling, and every time they just parade around a memorandum to make noise. The reality is, a deal will never happen.

A memorandum has zero binding power. Trump hypes it up simply because he has to give the American public an answer: "I spent so much money fighting this war, and I still delivered results."

Meanwhile, oil prices cannot tolerate an endless war. Sustained high oil prices mean persistent inflation, which will quickly bleed Republican support and lead to defeat in the upcoming midterms.

On the Iranian side, institutional unity is gone. Without the elder Khamenei, Mojtaba is incapable of balancing the interests of internal factions.

As we can clearly see, the IRGC and the Iranian Foreign Ministry are operating on completely different tracks—talking peace with one hand while attacking oil tankers with the other.

Iran’s internal fracture is merely a matter of time. By killing Khamenei, the US also eliminated the only counterpart it could actually negotiate with.

The rapid depletion of global oil inventories, combined with the looming escalation, will send oil prices surging once again.